Context changes uncertainty

Canyon missions are uncommon in the historical record. Compare a canyon mission with a plains mission, then switch between pooled and per-environment calibration and watch how the ranges change.

Upgrades for this level

Capital —

Calibrated probability

300 cr

Show a calibrated probability next to the raw model score.

Uncertainty intervals

500 cr

Show the lower and upper bound around every calibrated probability.

Per-environment calibrationRequired

1,000 cr

Calibrate within each operating environment (Mondrian) and show the environment. Rules can use it too.